@BaronBattleBread The roulette was never meant to give you stacks upon stacks of craftycoins

I was always in this primarily for curiosity and only secondarily in it for the wealth gain. I have tedious records of everything I won in the casino, and if the admins decide I did something wrong then I'll happily hand over or destroy all my profits. I'm not looking to burn any bridges after all :)

@Laggy_GIF ^ we need a way to win big with the 2 per day voting coins

I doubt this is possible due to players such as myself. If there was even a 1/1000 chance for some crazy jackpot I have the bankroll hit it several times

I've talked with Mith about the state of the casino at length, and I agree with most of the points he makes. I don't know if the staff wants the casino to be a place that's regularly crowded or a place where people go to spend their 2 coin/day allowance in a few seconds. For the moment I plan on just sitting tight and letting the admins handle it in their own time. I am significantly more optimistic about the future of the casino than Mith though, and I believe in time the admins will be able to bring the same success to the casino that they have brought to all of CraftyMynes. The work the admins have done for this server is one of the reasons I've stayed on this server for so much longer than I could have expected (regular play for over 6 months) and I trust they can handle this

This is not a buy/sell thread, and it would be pretty hard to get me to part with them since they're so rare now. You are however welcome to private message me if you like

I can also confirm the locations have been changed, I lost several stacks last night trying to get Dawn's and RNC's weapons, but when the coin landed in the farthest hoppers I received no prize

I'll probably never use them now that they changed the locations of the weapons. Even with 30+ stacks I'm not sure i have enough to get all the weapons + all the dice, so I could possibly be convinced to sell most/all of them, although I have no plans to for the time being

I'm a big blackjack fan IRL, and blackjack has a pretty standard house edge of ~0.6% assuming perfect play, and therefore has an expected value of .994 .
With the adjustments Baron tested (3:1 and 5:1 payout), black now has an EV of 1.129 and red and EV of .994 which would be close to the ranges I'm suggesting. With those odds, betting on black would yield 1 craftycoin on average every 100 seconds with the information I have, but are much more reasonable than either the original or nerfed states

I considered doing a similar version of the Random Walk calculation, but without in-depth knowledge of the mathematics/programming behind the floundering of guardians decided to go with my purely empirical approach. Since I took nothing into account other than the final position of the guardian, it simply doesn't make sense to apply the type of adjustment factor you're proposing. I do, however defer to your opinion on the expected outcomes of the casino, although in my humble opinion the roulette table will be unplayable unless it falls within approximately .9 to 1.05 expected values ranges

TL;DR: roulette was OP as hell, is currently unplayable, and at the end is my proposed layout based off of 3000 rolls that I recorded by hand

Hey guys, so today when I was grinding in the casino I decided to record all the bets I placed, as well as a few hundred that I witnessed but did not place myself. The results were

total trials: 3003
total black: 1809 (~60.2%)
total red: 1194 (~39.8%)

Expected outcomes (keep in mind this was with 4 red tiles and 8 black tiles, so pre-nerf):
Black expected value: (1809/3003) * (2/1 payout) = 1.205
Red Expected value: (1194/3003) * (4/1 payout) = 1.590

This was how me and many others were able to "game" the casino: for each bet on red we profited a half coin gain in the long run. For a stable economy, this couldn't be allowed to persist and why I myself lobbied for a nerf. However, these results do show that not every pressure plate had an equal chance of being landed on. Since at the time each of the 4 middle plates were red and the 8 corner plates were black, the chance of landing on each of the plates are (assuming each middle plate and each corner plate have the same chance of being landed on):

corner plates: (1809/3003) * (1/8) = 7.53%
center plates: (1194/3003) * (1/4) = 9.94%

I am not sure whether the admins are tracking this type of data, although I would be interested in more accurate data with a larger sample size.

Now, on the current (post-nerf) table, the admins have switched out 2 of the 4 red plates and 3 of the 8 black plates in favor of green tiles where the player loses no matter what they bet on. When i calculated the expected returns for the game now, i got:
Black expected value: (1809/3003) * (2/1 payout) * (5/8 adjustment) = 0.753
Red Expected value: (1194/3003) * (4/1 payout) * (2/4 adjustment) = 0.795
Since both values are less than 1, a player can expect to lose coins in the long run (and quite quickly, i might add). If these are the odds, then I see no reason to ever play roulette. I don't know what further balancing changes the admins have for us (if this was a temporary fix to stop the exploiters or not), but Ideally these numbers would be much closer to 1 to entice players to actually play the game.

Therefore for my own entertainment I decided to redesign the roulette table to make it closer to even. This means that if we keep the same bet payouts (black pays 2 to 1 and red pays 4 to 1), then black would ideally get rolled 50% of the time, and red would get rolled 25% of the time in a game where neither the players nor the casino has an advantage (rather purely luck-based). Consider the following symmetric table layout:
__R_B_G__
B________B
G________R
B________B
__R_B_G__
Under such a layout, the payouts would be:
Black expected value:[ (1809/3003) *(4/8 corner plates) + (1194/3003) * (2/4 center plates) ]*(2/1 payout) = 1.000
Red expected value:[ (1809/3003) *(2/8 corner plates) + (1194/3003) * (1/4 center plates) ]*(4/1 payout) = 1.000
Using my data, this would be a perfect layout to make betting on both red and black a viable, fair strategy akin to flipping a coin. Also if there is a mechanical problem with adjacent corner plates (I notice sometimes the guardian presses down both at once), the following adjustment could be made, sacrificing some symmetry for practicality:
__R_B_B__
R________B
G________R
B________G
__B_B_G__
Which is my final suggestion for an unbiased roulette table.

TL;DR: roulette was OP as hell, is currently unplayable, and at the end is my proposed layout based off of 3000 rolls that I recorded by hand

If you made it this far, thanks so much for reading. I spent a considerable amount of time collecting data for this post today while grinding the casino for 8-10 hours, and made this post in the hopes that there will be enough incentive for me to play roulette again for fun in the future.

yes, they added green auto-lose tiles, so now both red and black lose ~25% in the long run