A common question in chat and on this forum is 'Where should I build my base?' impling 'where no one will find it'.
I was pondering this at lunch today and broke it down into 3 parts:
- Where in the world is a base least likely to be found.
- What are the odds of someone finding my base there by chance.
- How do I avoid leaving a trail to my base.
I do not claim to be an authority on such issues and, in fact, I am keen to learn from others with greater experience, but here are my musings.
1. Where in the world.
There are two parts to the obtuse answer:
a) where people are the least likely to be
b) where people are the least likely to look
Part a) is addressed by building 'far' from spawn. Spawn has the highest population density which drops off at some rate as you travel further away. Crafty provides a random 10k TP which will place you somewhere between -10k and +10k in both the X and Z directions in the Over world. Most people who plan to stay on the server a while use this facility and I think it is safe to say a surface base <|10k| in either X or Z from spawn stands a fair chance of being found. Greater than that the odds of your base being found reduce quickly, on average, but see b)
Part b) is about trying not think like another player or, put a better way, trying to think how another player would think and then not doing that! Here are my thoughts (which have some empirical evidence in support), maybe others can comment further:
i) Some people random TP and then hike past the 10k point in the overworld. This is tedious and slow so I would not expect too many to venture out this way beyond 15-20k, but those that do will be viewing a lot of the world. So whilst better than <10k I think 20k is still not as good as 30k from spawn.
ii) To travel more than 30k in the overworld most people turn to the nether where the ratio of blocks is 1:8 (i.e. if you travel 1 block in the nether you travel 8 blocks in the overworld). This changes the dynamic a bit because instead of a player walking (and viewing) a vast strip of the overworld trekking to the site of thier new base they just appear in a spot through a nether portal. That means that distance from spawn becomes less significant relative to covering your tracks (see 3), but don't think you can just keep going and your odds of remaining hidden keep improving - they don't - see iii).
iii) People are attracted to 'special' places. The more special the more likely someone will show up there. Good examples are:
I) The cardinal lines (directly North (N), South (S), East (E) & West (W))
II) The ordinal lines (directly NE, SE, SW, NW)
III) The world borders
IV) Round numbers: 10,000, 50,000 etc.
So if you are thinking setting up base in the corner of the world is a good idea - the chances are someone has already done that. The best way to not think like another player is to leave it to chance - i.e. some random coordinate rather than selecting a place.
iv) Finally, it is easy to spot a surface base from a distance (especially if it is lit at night) but an underground base you literally have to bump into.
Summing that up. Set up your base :
o In the 'goldilocks zone' >30k out from spawn but < 95k (world border is +/-100k from spawn)
o >5k from a "special location"
o Ideally below ground.
2. What are the odds?
Its very hard to say without having player numbers and movement statistics but assuming your base is on the surface in the goldilocks zone think of it like this: There are about 35000 million blocks (surface area) between 30k and 95k from spawn (in both X & Z). You can see about 64 blocks in any direction (in fact it is less than that due to obstructions) from a given point. Every time someone pops out of a new portal and runs 1000 blocks (assuming they do not go back on themselves at all) they sweep ~130k blocks. The chances of your base being in that area are 35,000,000,000/130,000 = ~1 in 270,000 and that is probably generous. So for 1000 unique portals with 1000 blocks of unique trail around them there is still <<1% chance of finding your base - unless, of course, you have left a trail (see 3).
If your base is underground, even with a surface opening, the odds of staying hidden are greatly improved. Instead of having to walk within 64 blocks of your base, someone could walk right by it and not see it. If they would have to walk within 5 blocks of the entrace to see it then the sweep width is 10x less and your odds at staying hidden 10x better. With no surface opening the odds of being found are effectively 0 (but see 3).
3. (Not) Leaving a Trail
Every mark on the landscape increases the foot print of your base and increases the odds of it being found. The most common is having a nether portal in it. The nether is a lot smaller to search than the overworld and having a nether portal within a 1000 overworld blocks of your base is not a good idea. Experienced players will notice every out of place block, half cut tree and diverted stream. Your best bet is leave as much undisturbed as possible when travelling to set up base. When setting up your base avoid harvesting locally - set your home, go to spawn and random TP to somewhere to collect surface materials e.g. wood.